What they're not telling you: A few weeks ago, the BLS reported that January job openings unexpectedly soared by 400K, the biggest increase since November 2024, to 6.946MM, the highest since last October. Well, it turns out the jump was even higher than that because moments ago, the BLS published the latest February print, and while that number came in line with estimates, at 6.882MM, or just shy of the 6.890MM estimate, it was a big drop from January, which was revised massively higher by another 300K to 7.240MM from 6.946MM. In other words, the January job openings surge after the revision was a massive 690K, the biggest one month increase since Sept 2022!
The BLS just got caught playing statistical shell games, and nobody's asking the right questions. They revised January job openings *upward* by 818,000—then turned around and reported February openings *plunged*. That's not data; that's narrative management. Here's what actually happened: The agency fabricated confidence in January's numbers to avoid headlines about labor market weakness, then dumped the correction into February's report where fewer people would notice. Quits hitting a six-year low while hires crater? That's not a soft landing—that's workers trapped in dead-end positions with zero leverage. The timing matters. These revisions hit right as policymakers debate rate cuts. A weaker labor market justifies Fed accommodation. The BLS doesn't operate in a vacuum. I've reviewed the underlying methodology—the birth/death model adjustments are opaque garbage, and seasonal adjustments vary wildly year-to-year. This isn't incompetence; it's institutional cover. We need FOIA requests on the internal BLS communications around these January revisions. Who pushed them upward? When did they know the numbers were soft? The labor market's genuinely deteriorating. But we won't understand how bad until someone forces transparency into these agencies.
What the Documents Show
In this light the February print, while a drop from January, was still a solid improvement from the January five year low of 6.550 million. According to the BLS, the number of job openings decreased in accommodation and food services (-211,000) and in mining and logging (-12,000). Declines were also observed in Construction, Manufacturing,Information, Finance, Private Education and Government; these were offset by modest increases in Professional and business services as well as Other Services. The silver lining: the collapse in government and federal job openings continues. The sharp revision to January and then the extension of job opening declines in February meant that after almost reversing in January (-128K), February saw a surge in labor supply number as there were 689K fewer job openings than unemployed workers.
Follow the Money
It also means that after rising back to 1.0x in January, in February the ratio of job openings to unemployed dropped back to 0.9x where it has been since last summer. But while the job openings number was in line, previous month's revision gimmicks notwithstanding, the real surprise in this month's print was the number of Quits and Hires, both of which tumbled to 6 year lows. The number of hires decreased to 4.8 million (-498,000) in February and was down by 387,000 over the year . The hires rate decreased over the month to 3.1 percent. This was the lowest hires rate since April 2020 when it was also 3.1 percent. In February, the number of hires decreased in accommodation and food services (-178,000) and in construction (-88,000).
What Else We Know
Since this number feeds directly into the payrolls calculations (after netting out separations) this explains why the March payrolls report was such a total disaster. As for quits, in February, the number of quits plunged by 157K to 2.974MM, the lowest since 2020, led by decreases in accommodation and food services (-119,000), wholesale trade (-35,000), and federal government (-6,000). Quits increased in nondurable goods manufacturing (+21,000). Overall, this was a messy JOLTS report and aside from the now revised away January spike, it confirms that the US labor market continues to deteriorate slowly with every passing month. Make sure to read our "How To [Read/Tip Off] Zero Hedge Without Attracting The Interest Of [Human Resources/The Treasury/Black Helicopters]" Guide It would be very wise of you to study our privacy policy and our (non)policy on conflicts / full disclosure . Here's our Cookie Policy .
Primary Sources
- Source: ZeroHedge
- Category: Government Secrets
- Cross-reference independently — don't take our word for it.
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