What they're not telling you: Goldman analyst Adam Wijaya asked clients whether this year's surge in SolarEdge, Enphase Energy, and other solar stocks is reviving a familiar trade: higher crude oil and natural gas prices in Europe and globally, strengthening the case for renewables as the energy shock sparks a return to coal switching . "Are we back to running the 2022 playbook? " Wijaya asked in a note published Monday.
Here's my read: This rally is a sucker's bet dressed in green rhetoric. Yes, energy shocks temporarily spike renewable valuations. But follow the actual power consolidation, not the stock ticker. Goldman's enthusiasm conveniently ignores that solar manufacturers remain hostage to Chinese supply chains and rare earth politics—dependencies that won't disappear because SolarEdge had a good quarter. The real story? Western governments are scrambling to *appear* serious about energy independence while maintaining the financial structures that keep them dependent on volatile commodity markets. Solar stocks surge when oil spikes because investors panic-diversify, not because we're witnessing an actual energy transition. I've covered enough energy wars to know: whoever controls manufacturing controls geopolitics. Right now, that's Beijing. Your 2024 solar rally is a speculative bubble riding genuine anxiety about energy security—but it solves nothing about Western industrial capacity or supply chain vulnerability. The stocks will surge again. The underlying power asymmetries? Those'll persist until someone actually builds domestic manufacturing. We're not there yet.
What the Documents Show
Wijaya said, " Certainly seems that way based on recent px action in residential solar ." "SEDG is +79% YTD vs ENPH +18% and RUN -32%... oil + gas prices moving higher in Europe/globally + coal switching coming into the equation begs the question 'do we start to see more renewables adoption in the EU given demand needs ?'". SolarEdge shares are up 64% year to date, broadly tracking Brent crude and the European natural gas benchmark. The logic behind the trade is that higher fossil fuel prices improve the economics of alternative energy. "As we start getting closer to midterm elections – some specialists asking questions around the 'blue playbook'… ie which single stocks could have leverage to a policy shift in Energy focused on solar/wind/renewables ." Potentially stronger demand for renewables comes as the Hormuz crisis forces countries to rethink energy security.
Follow the Money
With some power grid operators likely to switch to coal to keep the lights on , the shock is also reviving the conversation around adding more solar and wind to diversify grid mix. Make sure to read our "How To [Read/Tip Off] Zero Hedge Without Attracting The Interest Of [Human Resources/The Treasury/Black Helicopters]" Guide It would be very wise of you to study our privacy policy and our (non)policy on conflicts / full disclosure . Here's our Cookie Policy .
Primary Sources
- Source: ZeroHedge
- Category: Global Power
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